Tue 15 Feb 2011
Thawing Continues in Commercial Real Estate Finance Capital Markets
Posted by Jeff Kleinschmidt under Banking, Mortgages, Small Business
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I attended the annual Mortgage Bankers Association – Commercial Real Estate Finance Conference (MBA-CREF) last week in San Diego and for the first time since 2007 felt a genuine sense of optimism and enthusiasm relative to the state of the commercial real estate finance industry…albeit cautious.
According to the MBA’s Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations, $110 billion of loans were originated in 2010, up 36% from 2009. Leading the way were life insurance companies with volumes 155% higher than in 2009. In addition, Fourth Quarter 2010 overall loan originations jumped 63% over the same period in 2009.
Additional reasons for optimism include:
1. Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) markets are poised for a comeback – 25 firms have now set up CMBS/Conduit operations and expect to originate $68 billion in new commercial real estate loans in 2011, up from only $12 billion in 2010. Although this pales in comparison to 2007’s record mark of $230 billion of CMBS originations, it represents significant head winds for liquidity in the market.
2. Life insurance companies will once again have capital available and continue to lend in 2011.
3. Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE’s) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, along with HUD will increase deal flow this coming year.
With the fresh capital available and market enthusiasm we experienced, it generally means we are slowly returning to some form of normalcy in the commercial real estate finance industry. It could also mean competition is forming and well presented loan opportunities could experience improved loan terms (interest rates and leverage).
Negating some of the optimism was a general consensus from industry experts that 2011 could be the high water mark for distressed commercial real estate activity. Although the ratio of newly defaulted loans to resolved loans is leveling, this year could be the highest volume of distressed assets to hit the market.
For more information regarding commercial mortgage originations, please see the MBA “Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations” or contact me at jkleinschmidt@ubat.com if you have any specific questions or comments.